Data period
the results of 2025 — the latest full year of data. Individual indicators for 2026 are marked separately.
Updated: quarterly, as sectoral statistics are published.
01
Manufacturing output
KZT 30.6 trillion (≈ USD 59 billion)
2025
Share of the country’s industry
49.8% — for the first time more than mining
2025
Growth in physical volume
6,4 %
2025
Machine building
about KZT 6 trillion, almost 20% of manufacturing
2025
Growth in machine building
12,9 %
2025
Vehicle production
171,144 units, up 17.8%
2025
Imports of machinery, equipment and transport
43% of the country’s total imports, about USD 29 billion
2025
Estimated import substitution potential
up to USD 16.6 billion a year
estimate
02
For twenty years Kazakhstan was discussed as a country of raw materials. In 2025 something happened that does not make headlines but changes the substance: the share of manufacturing in GDP exceeded the share of mining for the first time — 12.7% against 11.9%. Within total industrial output manufacturing took 49.8%, overtaking extraction with its 43.6%. The physical volume of manufacturing grew by 6.4% over the year, machine building by 12.9%, and the output of machinery and equipment by 18%.
The second figure explains where this growth comes from and where it has yet to be realised. Machinery, equipment and vehicles are the largest item of Kazakhstani imports: 43% of all inbound trade, about USD 29 billion a year. Domestic demand for machine building products exceeds local output several times over. The sector’s estimate of import substitution potential is up to USD 16.6 billion annually. That is the size of the niche: not hypothetical demand that has to be created, but existing imports that someone is already paying for.
The third circumstance is the production base. The country has its own steel (4.3 million tonnes a year), copper (466 thousand tonnes), aluminium (265 thousand tonnes) and ferroalloys. Electricity and gas are cheaper than in Turkey and Eastern Europe, and the price of gas differs between regions by almost sixfold — meaning that the choice of site is in itself an instrument for reducing cost. Add membership of the EAEU: products manufactured with sufficient localisation circulate freely in a market of 180 million people.
Below is what exactly is produced, what is missing and where entry offers the best ratio of market size to competition.
03
Output for 2025 was KZT 30.6 trillion, about USD 59 billion. The structure of the country’s industry: manufacturing — 49.8%, mining — 43.6%, the remainder — electricity, heat and water supply. The physical volume index for manufacturing was 106.4% against 2024; in nominal terms growth was higher, at 22.3%, with the difference accounted for by prices.
Growth by sub-sector in 2025: fabricated metal products — 13.6%, machine building — 12.9%, chemicals — 9.8%, food — 8.1%, metallurgy — 1.2% (including ferrous metallurgy — 4.3%).
The largest sub-sector is metallurgy, with output of about KZT 19 trillion. The second is machine building at about KZT 6 trillion; its share of manufacturing has risen from 13.9% to 17.2% and has come close to 20%.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Output | about KZT 6 trillion |
| Growth | 12.9% in 2025 |
| Production of machinery and equipment | +18,1 % |
| Production of electrical equipment | +16 % |
| Number of enterprises | about 5 thousand |
| Investment attracted | over KZT 375 billion in 2025 |
| Exports of the sector’s products | USD 2.2–2.9 billion |
The long-term trajectory is more telling than annual figures: between 2010 and 2019 machine building exports tripled and the number of enterprises almost doubled. The sector has been growing for years, and not on the back of one-off projects.
Kazakhstan’s imports for 2025 were USD 64.8 billion, up 7.4%. Exports were USD 79.0 billion, down 3.2%. The trade surplus narrowed by a third — from USD 21.3 to 14.2 billion.
The structure of imports is the key document for an industrial investor:
| Product group | Share of imports |
|---|---|
| Machinery, equipment, vehicles | 43.0% (≈ USD 29 billion) |
| Chemical products | 16,9 % |
| Passenger cars | 4,4 % |
| Bodies of motor vehicles | 2,3 % |
| Parts and accessories of motor vehicles | 2,2 % |
Where imports come from: Russia — 29.4–29.7%, China — 29.1–29.2%, Germany — about 4.7%, the Republic of Korea — 3.6%, the United States — 3.4%. Two countries account for almost 59% of all inbound trade. In individual high-technology categories China’s share reaches 85% — for computers, for example.
Where exports go: Italy — about 20%, China — about 19%, Russia — 10.4%, the Netherlands — 7.5%, Turkey — 4.9%. Exports to the Central Asian countries grew by 23% in 2025, to USD 4.7 billion.
04
In 2025, 171,144 vehicles were produced with a value of over KZT 2.3 trillion, up 17.8%. Of these, passenger cars accounted for 158,944 (plus 19%) and commercial vehicles for 12,200 (plus 8%). Investment in the sector over the year was KZT 113.6 billion, and employment 11.2 thousand people.
| Plant | Output in 2025 |
|---|---|
| Allur, Kostanay | 92 100 |
| Hyundai Trans Kazakhstan, Almaty | 52 040 |
| Astana Motors Manufacturing, Almaty | 15,180 (new plant) |
| SemAZ, Semey | 3 728 |
| Kia Qazaqstan | 2,885 (new plant) |
| QazTehna, Saran | 2 665 |
| KAMAZ Engineering, Kokshetau | 1 426 |
| Others | about 1,100 |
The key point for a Chinese investor: the Astana Motors Manufacturing plant launched in 2025 is a multi-brand site with a design capacity of up to 90–120 thousand vehicles a year, producing Chery, Changan and Great Wall (Haval, Tank). The presence of Chinese marques in Kazakhstani assembly is already a fact, and it creates demand for a local component base.
Output of railway products grew from KZT 104.5 billion in 2017 to KZT 599.6 billion in 2024 — 5.7 times in seven years. A cluster has taken shape: freight and passenger carriages, locomotives in partnership with Wabtec and Alstom, solid-rolled wheels, switch products and reinforced concrete sleepers. Updated technical regulation standards for railway special-purpose vehicles have applied since 15 January 2026.
The market is worth KZT 263 billion according to 2023 data, with a forecast of growth to KZT 300 billion. Eight large enterprises produce tractors and combine harvesters, formally covering farmers’ annual requirement. But the structure of imports shows otherwise: in units imports account for 11–12%, while in money — up to 20%. The gap means that what is imported is expensive mid-range and premium machinery, while local production covers the lower segment. The largest component localisation centre is Kostanay, with up to 25 thousand units a year.
Ten production facilities have been localised, and a further fifteen are planned for launch by 2027 with the participation of global manufacturers. Imports of oil and gas equipment were estimated at USD 2.7 billion. A distinctive feature of this niche is the institutional sales channel: the major operators (Tengizchevroil, Karachaganak Petroleum Operating, NCOC) run five-year local content development programmes with offtake contracts and targets built into management incentives.
Output has tripled in seven years. About 22% of production goes to export, and over 48% of cable exports go to Kyrgyzstan. A declared goal is to reach external markets worth USD 125 million, including pilot deliveries to Nigeria. The largest producer is Kazenergokabel in Karaganda Region, with a range of over 17 thousand items.
Domestic production: steel — 4.27 million tonnes (up 3.9%, with a plan to grow to 10 million tonnes), copper — 466 thousand tonnes (a plan of up to 750 thousand by 2029), zinc — 288 thousand, aluminium — 265 thousand, ferroalloys — 2.3 million tonnes, pig iron — 3.3 million tonnes.
The price of commercial gas for large industrial consumers differs radically by region: from KZT 13,069 per thousand m³ in East Kazakhstan Region to KZT 76,686 in Almaty and Almaty Region — a difference of 5.9 times. The wholesale price of electricity is about KZT 16 per kWh.
A conclusion worth drawing before choosing a site: for energy-intensive production the region of location affects cost more than most tax benefits do.
05
1
Automotive components and spare parts. Bodies account for 2.3% of imports and parts and accessories for 2.2%, that is, about USD 3 billion a year is imported to serve assembly plants that already exist in the country. The EAEU rule on free circulation requires welding, painting and localisation of at least 50% — an institutional incentive to localise components specifically, and not only final assembly. The best-founded niche in terms of the ratio of demand to the barrier to entry.
2
Mid-range and premium agricultural machinery and components for it. The gap between the share of imports in units (11–12%) and in money (up to 20%) points directly to the segment that is not covered. Demand is underpinned by subsidies to farmers, and the component localisation channel has already been created in Kostanay.
3
Oil and gas and mining equipment. Fifteen production facilities are planned for launch by 2027 — that is, the state has itself identified the niche. The offtake contracts of major operators provide what an industrial project usually lacks: guaranteed sales from the outset.
4
Cable and wire products and electrical engineering. The sector already exports and has already tripled. This is not the creation of a market from scratch but the expansion of capacity on the back of existing competence — the lowest-risk form of entry.
5
Railway engineering. Expansion of the existing cluster: carriage castings, axles, locomotive components. The partnerships with Wabtec and Alstom work as a technology transfer channel, and there are sales both within the country and in neighbouring states.
6
Assembly of mid-range household appliances and electronics. China’s share of computer imports is 85%, and over 50% for most categories of household appliances; a significant part of what is imported is re-exported to Central Asia. The distribution channels are already built — localising assembly converts a trading role into a manufacturing one.
7
Higher value-added metal products. The raw material base is substantial, but exports remain low value-added: metals and articles account for about 13.5% of exports. The niche is not in smelting but in producing billets, castings and finished metal products for machine building from local raw materials.
8
Products where high localisation has already been achieved: transformers, batteries, capacitors, bearings, heat exchangers, shut-off valves. Localisation for these items reaches 80–90%, meaning that the technological and human base exists — the question is scaling up and reaching export markets.
⚠ A note on method. The niches above are derived from the structure of imports, declared state localisation plans and the availability of raw materials. Establishing the exact size of each niche in money requires detailed customs statistics by commodity code — these are available on request and are not published in open summaries. When a specific project is being prepared, that calculation is done separately.
06
Technical requirements. Machinery and equipment fall under the Customs Union technical regulation “On the safety of machinery and equipment” — uniform mandatory requirements for circulation across the entire EAEU market. For vehicles the rule is that free circulation within the union requires body welding, painting on the territory and localisation of at least 50%. Standards for railway special-purpose vehicles were tightened on 15 January 2026.
Channels of guaranteed sales. Offtake contracts in public procurement: 363 contracts worth KZT 257.5 billion in 2025 against 367 contracts worth KZT 190 billion in 2024 — the number fell while the value rose by 35%. The national infrastructure plan to 2029 comprises 204 projects worth KZT 40.1 trillion, with a requirement for Kazakhstani content of at least 60–64% for goods and 95% for works and services.
Industrial assembly agreements are concluded once localisation reaches 3,000 points; several manufacturers already operate under this regime.
Financial measures. A project in manufacturing may qualify for exemption from corporate income tax for up to ten years, zero rates of land and property tax, an in-kind grant of up to 30% of the investment and exemption from customs duties on imported equipment. Residency in a specialised economic zone (“Saryarka” — metallurgy and metalworking, “Astana — New City” — locomotive and carriage building, “Pavlodar” — chemicals and metallurgy) confers benefits for terms of 7 to 25 years depending on the amount invested. Medium- and long-term financing is available from the Development Bank of Kazakhstan and the Industrial Development Fund, whose portfolio has grown to KZT 2.2 trillion.
An analysis of the regimes, thresholds and procedures is given in the paper “State support measures and preferences: what the state actually provides”.
07
20.6 million people. None of the niches listed pays back on domestic consumption alone, except those where demand is generated by the state or by major operators. Exports must be built into the model — to Central Asia, the EAEU, China or Afghanistan.
Two countries account for 59% of inbound trade. Local production competes not with imports in the abstract but with two powerful and low-cost manufacturing systems, one of which shares a 1,780 km border with Kazakhstan and the other a common customs union. A price advantage has to be grounded in something specific: logistics, raw materials, energy or a benefit — but not in aspiration.
Even in sectors with formally high localisation, imports of assemblies persist. Industry experts speak plainly of the worn-out technological base of the existing plants as the reason why investors are cautious.
The shortage across the country is estimated at more than 1.5 million people, with about 60% of demand in engineering and technical trades. Machine building is short of everyone: CNC machine operators, turners, design engineers, automation specialists. Wages in manufacturing are already 24.7% above the national average (KZT 535 thousand against KZT 429 thousand in the third quarter of 2025) — that is the price of competing for people, and it will rise. Training staff for oneself has to be built into the project budget.
The country is landlocked and the distances to markets are long. The almost sixfold difference in the price of gas between regions means that choosing the wrong site costs more than it appears to at the start.
EAEU localisation requirements open up a market of 180 million people but close the door to screwdriver assembly. Standards continue to be tightened — this has to be treated as a continuous process, not a one-off approval.
The exchange rate has moved within a wide range over the past year; individual bank forecasts allow for depreciation to KZT 553 per dollar by the end of 2026. A project with costs in foreign currency and revenue in tenge must be stress-tested.
Declines are being recorded in the output of zinc, gold and aluminium — analysts attribute this to ore depletion at major deposits and to the restructuring of supply logistics. Reliance on cheap local raw materials has to be checked for the specific metal and supplier, not for the country as a whole.
08
The rationale for entering Kazakhstani industry today is not “cheap production for export to Europe” but “substituting imports in a market that is already paying”. USD 29 billion of machinery and equipment imported annually is a bill being paid right now. The task of a project is to take part of it, not to generate new demand.
Three conditions under which the economics work:
What to check before deciding:
We do this work for a specific project: sector analysis, calculation of the niche from customs data, selection of a site and a regime, and support through to the investment contract. If you have a product and manufacturing competence, the conversation should start with the commodity item, not with the site.
09
The paper in full in print form — with all its tables and sources. We send it by email, usually the same working day.
Request the PDF by emailThe email will be sent to info@sabr.asia with the subject of the paper — no form is needed for that.
Name the commodity item — we will calculate the volume of imports from customs data, check existing production, and select a site and a preference regime.
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