Economy 12 min read

Kazakhstan’s macroeconomics for the foreign investor

Data period

2025 and the first half of 2026. Exchange rates, the base rate and quotations are as at 12 August 2026.

Updated: quarterly. The “Key figures” block and the “What the data show” section are updated in full; the remaining sections are updated as the rules change.

01 / Summary

Key figures

GDP

KZT 159.6 trillion (≈ USD 306 billion)

2025
GDP growth

6.5% in 2025 · 4.1% in H1 2026

2025 / H1 2026
Inflation

10.2% year on year

July 2026
National Bank base rate

16,75 %

decision of 24.07.2026
Exchange rate

KZT 465.74 per US dollar · KZT 69.05 per yuan

12.08.2026
Gross inflow of foreign direct investment

USD 20.5 billion

2025
Sovereign rating

BBB− positive (S&P) · BBB stable (Fitch) · Baa1 (Moody's)

2026
Population

20.6 million people, unemployment 4.5%

01.07.2026

02 / Context

Why Kazakhstan is drawing attention now

Investor interest in Kazakhstan has changed over the past three years in substance, not in volume. The country used to be viewed as an extraction site: oil, metals, uranium — and everything around them. Today two motives have been added that were not there before. The first is the need to bypass the Russian route: overland transit between China and Europe physically runs either through Russia or through Kazakhstan, and there is no third option. The second is the relocation of production closer to sales markets and further from political risk: Kazakhstan has turned out to be one of the few jurisdictions where cheap energy, access to raw materials, membership of the EAEU and a 1,780-kilometre border with China come together.

This is visible in the structure of the money rather than in announcements. In 2025 manufacturing attracted USD 4.4 billion of foreign direct investment — 47% more than a year earlier — and in volume almost drew level with trade. The inflow from China grew by 135% over the year, to USD 2.8 billion, and China entered the top three investors for the first time. More than 80% of GDP growth in the first half of 2026 came from non-oil sectors: manufacturing, construction, trade and transport.

At the same time Kazakhstan remains an economy where raw materials generate more than half of export revenue, inflation has stayed in double digits for a second year, and the cost of money inside the country — a base rate of 16.75% — makes local debt financing expensive. The paper below shows both sides: what makes entry sensible, and what will have to be built into the model as a risk.

03 / Data

What the data show

The economy and growth

Kazakhstan’s nominal GDP for 2025 was KZT 159.6 trillion, about USD 306 billion at the average rate for the year. Real growth was 6.5%, the highest figure in a decade. In the first half of 2026 growth was 4.1%; forecasts for the whole of 2026 diverge: the World Bank expects 4.5–4.6%, S&P about 4%, and the government has set a target of no less than 5%.

The structure of GDP for 2025: services — 57.7%, goods production — 36.1%, taxes on products — 6.2%. Industry as a separate sector accounts for 26.3% of GDP, agriculture — 3.7%. By growth rate in 2025 the leaders were trade (+26%), transport (+17.8%), mining (+17.4%), construction (+14.6%) and manufacturing (+12.2%).

GDP per capita for 2025 was KZT 7.83 million. By nominal GDP Kazakhstan is the only country in Central Asia within the world’s top 50 economies.

Inflation and the cost of money

Annual inflation for 2025 was 12.3%: food rose by 13.5%, non-food goods by 11.1%, and paid services by 12%. By July 2026 inflation had fallen to 10.2% year on year, but it remains twice the National Bank’s target of “close to 5%”. The regulator’s own forecast for 2026 is 9.5–12.5%, and reaching the target is not expected before 2028.

Over 2026 the base rate travelled from 18% in January to 16.75% at the end of July. The intermediate decisions were: 18% (26 January, 10 March, 27 April), 17% (8 June), 16.75% (24 July). The next meetings are on 4 September, 23 October and 4 December 2026.

What this means in practice. At such a rate a tenge loan inside the country is expensive, and local debt financing should not be counted on as the principal source for a project. The workable arrangement for a foreign investor is equity or a loan from the parent company; it should be borne in mind, however, that interest on such a loan is subject to withholding tax when paid abroad.

Base rate decisions in 2026
Date of decision	Base rate	Corridor
26.01.2026	18,00 %	17–19 %
10.03.2026	18,00 %	17–19 %
27.04.2026	18,00 %	17–19 %
08.06.2026	17,00 %	16–18 %
24.07.2026	16,75 %	15,75–17,75 %

The tenge exchange rate

The tenge has been free-floating since August 2015. As at 12 August 2026 the National Bank’s official rate is KZT 465.74 per US dollar and KZT 69.05 per yuan. In July and early August 2026 alone the rate moved within a range of KZT 464–474 per dollar, that is by about 2% within the month.

The practical conclusion for a financial model: tenge revenue in an export-oriented project should be tested against a scenario of 10–15% depreciation a year. The exchange rate depends on oil prices and on sales of foreign currency from the National Fund, not only on the inflation differential.

Foreign direct investment

The gross inflow of foreign direct investment for 2025 was USD 20.5 billion, 14.4% more than in 2024. By sector: wholesale and retail trade — USD 4.8 billion, manufacturing — USD 4.4 billion (growth of 47%), finance and insurance — USD 4.3 billion, information and communications — USD 1.4 billion. In the first quarter of 2026 the inflow was USD 6.3 billion, and the largest investor of the quarter was the Netherlands with USD 1.2 billion.

Accumulated foreign investment in Kazakhstan’s economy exceeds USD 160 billion. The top investor countries over the decade are the Netherlands, the United States, Switzerland, Belgium, Russia, South Korea, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany.

An important qualification that is usually left out. Against a gross inflow of USD 20.5 billion, the net inflow of direct investment in 2025 turned negative for the first time since 2005 — minus USD 0.9 billion. The difference between the two figures is capital withdrawal, repayment of intra-group loans and repatriation of profit by investors already present. The headline gross inflow figure does not describe the capital account, and an investor assessing the behaviour of those already in the country should look precisely at the net figure.

Foreign trade

Kazakhstan’s trade turnover for 2025 was USD 143.9 billion, up 1.3%. Exports were USD 79.0 billion (down 3.2%), imports USD 64.8 billion (up 7.4%). The trade surplus narrowed from USD 21.3 to 14.2 billion, that is by a third. Crude oil accounted for about 52% of all exports.

Imports are split almost evenly between two partners: Russia — 29.7%, China — 29.2%; together about 59% of all inbound trade. Trade turnover with China for 2025 was USD 48.7 billion, and USD 22 billion for the first five months of 2026, up 27% year on year. The target declared by the two sides is USD 100 billion.

People and the labour market

The population as at 1 July 2026 was 20.59 million, of whom 13.19 million were urban. Unemployment in the first quarter of 2026 was 4.5%, and 3% among young people.

The average monthly nominal wage in the first quarter of 2026 was KZT 461,486 (about USD 990), and the median wage KZT 331,527. Nominal growth against the previous year was 9.1%, but in real terms wages fell by 2.3%: inflation is outpacing them.

For an investor this is a twofold picture. The cost of labour remains competitive against Turkey and China’s eastern seaboard, but the shortage of personnel is real: the economy’s projected additional need for qualified workers over 2025–2035 is estimated at 2.5 million people, of whom about 813 thousand are in blue-collar trades.

External assessments

External assessments and ratings
Assessment	Value	Date
S&P Global Ratings	BBB− / A-3, outlook positive	20.02.2026
Fitch Ratings	BBB, outlook stable	20.06.2026
Moody's	Baa1, outlook stable	latest action 09.09.2024
Index of Economic Freedom	68th in the world, score 64.2	2026
IMD World Competitiveness	34th place	2025
Rule of Law Index (World Justice Project)	66th of 143, score 0.54	2025
Corruption Perceptions Index	38 points out of 100, 96th place	2025

All three leading agencies keep Kazakhstan in the investment grade category, and in February 2026 S&P raised its outlook to positive. On the rule of law Kazakhstan ranks first among the CIS countries. On the perception of corruption it lost 2 points over the year, after years of improvement.

The resilience of public finances

Public debt stands at about 23% of GDP, which is low by international standards. The National Bank’s international reserves as at 1 August 2026 were USD 63.7 billion, of which monetary gold accounted for USD 48.2 billion. The National Fund’s foreign currency assets are USD 66 billion. Together — over USD 100 billion.

The other side: the pace of debt growth has accelerated sharply — from 8% for 2025 to 23% for the comparable period of 2026; budget spending on debt servicing in 2026 is KZT 3.5 trillion. The debt-to-GDP ratio itself is a snapshot on a given date; over a horizon of 3–5 years the trajectory matters more, and it has changed.

04 / Rates

The 2026 tax regime

A new Tax Code has been in force in Kazakhstan since 1 January 2026. The rates below are given according to its current wording.

Tax rates for 2026 compared with the previous ones
Tax	Rate in 2026	Before 2026
Corporate income tax	20 %	20% — unchanged
CIT for banks and the gambling business	25 %	20 %
CIT for social sector organisations	5 %	—
CIT for agricultural producers	3 %	3 %
VAT	16 %	12 %
Threshold for mandatory VAT registration	10,000 MCI ≈ KZT 43.25 million	20,000 MCI
Personal income tax	10%, with a progressive scale for income above 8,500 MCI a year	10 %
Social tax	6 %	6% — unchanged
Withholding tax for non-residents (interest, royalties, other income)	20 %	20 %
Tax on dividends paid to a non-resident holding 25% or more of the capital	5% up to 230,000 MCI, 15% above that	5%, with an exemption for holdings of more than 3 years
MCI	KZT 4,325	KZT 3,932 in 2025
Minimum wage	KZT 85,000	KZT 85,000

Three changes that alter a project’s calculations:

01
VAT has risen from 12% to 16%. For a project oriented towards the domestic market this is a direct increase in the final price; for an export project it is a question of how quickly VAT is refunded, not of the rate.
02
The VAT registration threshold has been halved — from 20,000 to 10,000 MCI, that is to roughly KZT 43.25 million of annual turnover. Small service companies that were previously not liable now fall within the VAT regime.
03
The dividend exemption for a three-year holding has been abolished. The former rule — an exemption for dividends where a stake had been held for more than three years — has not been reproduced in the new code. What remains is the 5% / 15% scale for holders of at least 25% of the capital, while the three-year period now exempts only the gain on the sale of participatory interests and shares, and not the dividends themselves. Models built on the old rule need to be recalculated.

05 / Money abroad

Currency regime and repatriation of profit

The tenge is freely convertible for current transactions and the exchange rate floats. A foreign investor is entitled to open accounts with Kazakhstani banks in tenge and in foreign currency.

Repatriation of profit. Dividends, interest on loans and royalties are transferred abroad to a non-resident without quantitative restrictions — after withholding tax has been deducted. The requirement to repatriate foreign currency proceeds, established by the law on currency regulation, applies to exporters — that is, to the return to the country of proceeds from exported goods and services, and not to the payment of dividends. These are different rules and they are regularly confused: there is no restriction on the repatriation of profit by a foreign participant in an LLP.

What to allow for. Currency contracts are subject to registration for recording purposes in the manner established by the National Bank; the specific thresholds depend on the type and amount of the contract and must be checked against the rules in force at the time of the transaction. We note separately: article 8 of the law on currency regulation was amended by the law of 16 January 2026 — we do not confirm the content of that amendment as at the date of this paper and recommend checking the current wording before structuring a transaction.

Guarantees. The law on foreign investment secures a foreign investor’s right to dispose of income after tax: to reinvest it in Kazakhstan, to purchase goods, or to apply it to any purpose that is not prohibited. National treatment is declared — the legislation draws no distinction between a foreign and a Kazakhstani investor.

06 / Preferences

State support in brief

The tax regime is only half the picture. An investment project in priority sectors may obtain exemption from corporate income tax, zero rates of land tax and property tax, exemption from customs duties on imported equipment, an in-kind grant and a guarantee of the stability of the tax regime. The conditions and thresholds are set out in the Entrepreneurial Code, which from 1 January 2026 replaced the former single investment contract with three separate types.

A separate regime is the Astana International Financial Centre, with English law, its own court and tax benefits; another is residency in special economic and industrial zones.

A detailed analysis is given in the paper “State support measures and preferences: what the state actually provides”.

07 / Risks

Risks and constraints

No government source publishes this section. Yet it is precisely this section that determines whether a project survives to payback.

Dependence on raw materials

Oil generates about 52% of export revenue. A fall in the oil price feeds through to the tenge exchange rate, to budget revenue and to domestic demand at the same time. A project oriented towards domestic consumption takes the blow from the same side as an oil project does.

Oil transit through Russia

The principal export route for Kazakhstani oil to the west is the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline, which runs across Russian territory to Novorossiysk. In 2025–2026 pumping was suspended on several occasions because of attacks on infrastructure. The International Monetary Fund explicitly names “prolonged disruptions to oil exports via the CPC” as a key external risk to the country’s economy. This is a risk not to an oil company but to the entire macroeconomic construction.

Secondary sanctions risks

Kazakhstan sits between sanctions regimes and is at the same time a transit territory. Its growing role as a transit hub for goods subject to restrictions raises the likelihood of regulatory pressure from Western countries — up to and including difficulties with settlements for companies that are formally not involved. Bank compliance on payments to and from Kazakhstan became noticeably stricter in 2025–2026.

Regulatory predictability

The United States Department of State’s investment climate report notes inconsistent enforcement, localisation policy and corruption as foreign investors’ principal complaints. On the Corruption Perceptions Index Kazakhstan lost 2 points in 2025 (38 out of 100), interrupting years of improvement. The practical conclusion: a contract that holds up under English law and a contract that holds up in local enforcement practice are not the same thing; the arbitration clause and the choice of forum need to be thought through at the outset, not when a dispute arises.

Inflation and the cost of money

Double-digit inflation for a second year running and a base rate of 16.75% mean expensive local financing and rapid depreciation of tenge revenue. Following its mission, the IMF notes signs of overheating: growth is being supported by loose fiscal policy and rapid consumer lending.

Acceleration of public debt

Formally the debt is low — 23% of GDP. But its growth rate has risen from 8% to 23% over comparable periods, and servicing costs in 2026 are KZT 3.5 trillion. Over a payback horizon of 5–7 years this matters more than the static ratio.

Personnel

The shortage of qualified workers is not an abstraction: the economy’s additional requirement is estimated at 2.5 million people by 2035. A manufacturing project in a region will almost certainly face the need to train people for itself, and that is a cost item, not a line in a social report.

The narrowness of the domestic market

20.6 million people is fewer than a single large Chinese city. A project designed solely for domestic consumption hits the ceiling quickly; the economics usually work when exports to Central Asia, the EAEU, China or Afghanistan are built into the model.

08 / Conclusion

What this means for an investor

Entry makes sense if a project fits at least one of three rationales: export through Kazakhstan (transit, processing of raw materials, logistics), import substitution on the EAEU domestic market with production located in Kazakhstan, or energy-intensive production that needs cheap electricity and access to metals.

What to check before deciding:

01
Recalculate the model at a VAT rate of 16% rather than 12%, and for the abolished dividend exemption — both rules changed on 1 January 2026.
02
Build tenge depreciation into the model and do not count on local debt financing as the principal source.
03
Establish whether the project qualifies for investment preferences before the legal entity is registered: some benefits are tied to an investment contract, which is concluded at the outset and not retrospectively.
04
Think through the choice of forum and the arbitration clause in advance.
05
Look not at gross investment inflow figures but at the behaviour of investors already in the sector — whether they are coming in or taking capital out.

First steps. Registering a limited liability partnership takes one working day and is done electronically; the minimum charter capital is 100 MCI (KZT 432,500 in 2026), and nil for small business entities. That is enough to start; the difficult part begins at the stage of preferences, land, utility connections and permits for foreign labour.

We support this path in full — from the entry structure through to the investment contract. A step-by-step analysis of the procedures is on the page “For foreign investors”.

09 / Verifiability

Sources

The data are drawn from open sources. References are given to the primary source wherever it is publicly available.

Statistics and macroeconomic indicators

Bureau of National Statistics of the ASPR of the Republic of Kazakhstan — GDP, inflation, labour market, foreign trade, population: stat.gov.kz
National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan — the base rate, official exchange rates, the balance of payments and foreign direct investment, international reserves: nationalbank.kz
World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook — Kazakhstan
International Monetary Fund, Article IV consultation — country report on Kazakhstan

Legal rules

Tax Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (new, in force from 01.01.2026) — rates of CIT, VAT, PIT and withholding tax, and the VAT registration threshold
Entrepreneurial Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan — investment preferences and contracts
Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “On currency regulation and currency control” of 02.07.2018 No. 167-VI
Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “On foreign investment”
Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “On the republican budget for 2026–2028” — the amounts of the MCI and the minimum wage
Texts of the rules: adilet.zan.kz

Assessments and ratings

S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings, Moody's — sovereign ratings
U.S. Department of State, Investment Climate Statement: Kazakhstan
World Justice Project, Rule of Law Index
Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index
Heritage Foundation, Index of Economic Freedom
IMD World Competitiveness Ranking
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report

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